Litteratur |
The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology. / Jaromir Beneset al. IMF Working Paper, 2012 - 33 s.
'We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production
and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil
output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite
historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil
expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging
technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions
in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the
world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models
in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price
of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on
ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.'
Sampson, Anthony: De syv søstre : De store olieselskaber
og den verden, de skabte.
Gyldendal, 1976. - 331 s.